In this study, we analyse the economic and managerial aspects of option values related to having a mixed-species stand. As an example, we look at a mixed Norway spruce and Sitka spruce stand in Denmark when timing and intensity of future climate, and its effect on tree growth, are uncertain. Assuming that tree growth follows a discrete non-stationary stochastic process, we use dynamic programming to optimise the harvest distribution between the two species.
The results show that facing growth uncertainty caused by potential climate change implies an option value. Such uncertainty can be a potential advantage as long as we are able to maintain flexibility, keep decisions open, and there is a chance that climatic change will benefit some species. We analyse the model under different uncertainty assumptions and show that the larger changes we expect, the higher is the option value at any time during the stand’s life and, hence, we keep, on average, both tree species in the stand for a longer period of time. Moreover, we find that the adjustments may take place rather late in the rotation, a result brought about by the significance of the option value, which makes it optimal to maintain a reasonable stocking of both species. 相似文献
Field studies carried out in a forest transition site on a tropical Alfisol in southwestern Nigeria, show that shading by
gliricidia (Gliricidia sepium (Jacq.) Steud) and leucaena (Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit) hedgerow species reduced density of speargrass (Imperata cylindrica (L.) Raeuschel) by 67% and 51%, respectively. Shoot biomass of speargrass decreased by 81% and 78% in gliricidia and leucaena
hedgerows, respectively. Reduction in speargrass rhizome biomass in gliricidia plots was 96% while rhizome reduction in the
leucaena plots was nearly 90%. Rhizome mortality was significantly higher in gliricidia plots than in leucaena and control
plots. The bulk of rhizomes was found between 10 cm and 20 cm of soil depth but rhizome did not penetrate further than 30
cm depth in the Alfisol in which this study was carried out. Gliricidia was better than leucaena hedgerow species in suppressing
speargrass. 相似文献
ABSTRACT Growth Simulation, an analytical modeling technique, has been increasingly used in ecological studies and practical forestry applications where dendrochronology is not applicable. The technique uses randomly sampled diameter increments from tagged trees over a known time interval to assemble a statistical sample of lifetime growth trajectories. We carried out a validation of Growth Simulation using a temperate species in order to compare indirect model outputs with direct tree ring analysis. Rings were measured on sample disks cut from 55 pine branches ranging in age from 8–36 years. Assessments included lifetime growth rates, growth rate with respect to diameter and age, periodic annual increment (PAI), cross-referencing of rings by date, and autocorrelation of growth over successive periods. Tree ring analysis and Growth Simulation showed close correspondence for all parameters tested (maximum, median, and minimum growth rates; longevity estimates). Growth Simulation is found to be a robust and informative technique for studies of tropical tree growth, and is especially useful where analysis of tree rings is not feasible or when bootstrapping analysis of ring data is of interest. 相似文献
A leaf disc bioassay was employed to investigate the influence of host species of deciduous fruit trees, like apple, peach,
plum, cherry and apricot, on the development and reproduction of the hawthorn spider mite Tetranychus viennensis Zacher in the laboratory under conditions of 25±1°C, 60±10% RH and a photoperiod of 16 h: 8 h light: dark. This was done
by determining the duration of each life stage of the mites, the intrinsic rate of population increase (rm), mean generation time (T) and net reproductive rate (R0) of the spider mites on each of the host plant species. Differences in life table parameters of the spider mite among host
plants were analyzed with the jack-knife method. The results indicated that plum might be the best suitable plant for the
spider mite among the plants tested due to shorter developmental period and higher intrinsic rate of increase, whereas cherry
and apricot were least suitable due to their long developmental duration and low intrinsic rates of increase. When the spider
mites were transferred from apple to other fruit trees, negative effects on developmental duration, fecundity and life table
parameters were found in the first generation, but the effects faded out in succeeding generations. When transferred onto
plum and peach, the spider mite adapted to the new hosts in the second generation; however, on cherry and apricot, it adapted
in the third generation.
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Translated from Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2005, 27(7) [译自: 生态学报, 2005, 27(7)] 相似文献
We describe the development of a robust and powerful suite of 12 microsatellite marker loci for use in genetic investigations
of black walnut and related species. These 12 loci were chosen from a set of 17 candidate loci used to genotype 222 trees
sampled from a 38-year-old black walnut progeny test. The 222 genotypes represent a sampling from the broad geographic distribution
of the species. Analysis of the samples using the 12 loci revealed an average expected heterozygosity of 0.83, a combined
probability of identity of 3×10−19, and a combined probability of exclusion for paternity analysis of >0.999. The 222 genotyped trees from the progeny test
comprised 39 open-pollinated families, 29 of which (having at least five sampled progeny) were used to estimate the outcrossing
rate for the progeny trial. The same 29 families were used to construct a Neighbor-Joining dendrogram based upon allele sharing
between individuals. The multilocus estimate of the outcrossing rate was 100% (standard error of zero), higher than the 90%
level found in previous studies at the embryo stage, suggesting that both artificial and natural selection against selfs may
have occurred over the 38-year lifespan of the progeny trial. In the Neighbor-Joining dendrogram, the majority of the putative
siblings grouped together in 21 out of the 29 families, showing that the microsatellites were able to discern most of the
family structure in the dataset. Our results indicate that errors were sometimes committed during the establishment of the
progeny test. This set of microsatellite loci clearly provides a powerful tool for future applications in black walnut. 相似文献